Water has always been a sensitive issue between India and Pakistan. Recently, the Chenab River has returned to the spotlight as India moves ahead with large hydropower projects that had been delayed for decades.
This development has raised serious questions — especially about how it could affect Pakistan.
So what exactly is this project? How long will it take? And why is it causing concern? Let’s break it down.
What Is India Planning on the Chenab River?
At the center of the developments is the Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project — a massive dam and power project located in Jammu & Kashmir’s Ramban district. With a planned capacity of around 1,856 megawatts, it is among the largest hydropower projects proposed in the region.
What makes Sawalkote significant is not just its size, but its history. The project was first proposed more than 40 years ago but repeatedly stalled, largely due to objections under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan.
With the treaty now placed in abeyance, India has decided to move forward.
Alongside Sawalkote, India is also fast-tracking other hydropower projects on the Chenab and its tributaries, including:
- Dulhasti Stage-II
- Ratle
- Kwar
- Pakal Dul
Together, these projects form what many describe as a broader push to maximise hydropower generation from the Chenab basin.
How Long Will These Projects Take?
Large dam projects require significant time.
For Sawalkote alone, the estimated construction timeline is approximately nine years from the start of work. That places potential completion in the early to mid-2030s.
Some smaller or linked projects could become operational sooner — within two to four years — particularly those being built near existing infrastructure. However, the overall strategy reflects long-term planning rather than short-term action.
Why Is This Happening Now?
The timing is critical.
For more than six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) governed water sharing between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty:
- Pakistan received primary rights over the western rivers
- India was allowed limited, non-storage hydropower development
In April 2025, following a major terrorist attack in Jammu & Kashmir, India placed the treaty in abeyance. This significantly altered the regulatory landscape.
With fewer treaty-related restrictions, India gained more operational flexibility to:
- Advance stalled hydropower projects
- Exercise greater control over water flows
- Limit the sharing of river-related data
This shift explains why long-delayed projects are now progressing.
How Could This Affect Pakistan?
This is where concerns intensify.
1. Water Flow Uncertainty
Pakistan relies heavily on the Chenab River for irrigation, particularly in Punjab. Even temporary reductions or changes in timing can affect agricultural cycles.
Although India maintains that these are run-of-the-river projects — meaning limited storage — Pakistan worries that:
- Water could be regulated during low-flow seasons
- Release patterns could change
- Sudden variations in discharge could disrupt farming
In river-dependent regions, even modest shifts can have amplified effects downstream.
2. Impact on Agriculture and Energy
Pakistan’s agricultural sector is deeply dependent on predictable river flows. Variability could:
- Affect crop output
- Intensify water stress
- Influence Pakistan’s own hydropower generation
In a country already facing climate pressures and water scarcity, uncertainty compounds existing vulnerabilities.
3. Increased Political Friction
Water has long been one of the most sensitive issues in India–Pakistan relations.
Pakistan has framed India’s moves as strategic pressure, while India argues that it is exercising its development rights. With the treaty inactive, structured dispute-resolution mechanisms are weakened — potentially turning water management into a sharper geopolitical issue.
What Does India Gain?
From India’s perspective, particularly in Jammu & Kashmir, these projects offer multiple advantages:
- Increased electricity generation
- Regional employment opportunities
- Infrastructure expansion
- Reduced reliance on energy imports
For India, the projects are framed as development-driven — focused on energy security and regional growth.
Final Thoughts
India’s mega hydropower push on the Chenab is not merely an engineering initiative — it carries strategic and geopolitical implications.
While it promises economic and energy benefits for India, it simultaneously raises concerns for Pakistan’s water security and regional stability.
In South Asia, water is more than a resource — it underpins livelihoods, agriculture, and national security.
How both countries manage this evolving situation will influence not only river flows, but also the broader trajectory of cooperation and tension in the region.
— The TrendSummary Editorial Team
